10/17/2013   THURS

Toll Brothers                  NYSE: TOL

Avg. Volume 3,700,000

81% institutionally owned

Risk: Defined

Toll Brothers has been stuck in a range between for the past 20 weeks it’s trading on the low of the range with houses averaging $575,000 and borrowing still tight and foreclosures continuing to plague the housing industry I think the stock should continue to hover around here if it does break it looks like the $26 area should be the new mid-range longer term and worst case scenario has the shares trading down around the $22.25 range which if were to happen it is probably 6 months out depending on the economy and the continued glut of homes still available.

IV on March Monthly options is 40.60%

P/E 10.73

March 30p/25p/20p +1/-2/+1 Put Butterfly for anything under 1.00 -.50 is a great way to capture some theta decay without being overly or widely bearish and offers a great Risk/ Reward ratio 

 Open Int. (est.)                strike        Mar 14 Monthly (155)

23                           185

24                           280

25                           240

26                           240

27                           670

28                        3,400

29                           380

30                           570

31                           140

32                           540

33                           170

Fiscal Quarter End	Date Reported	Earnings Per Share	Consensus EPS* Forecast
Jul2013	08/21/2013	0.38	0.27
Apr2013	05/22/2013	0.07	0.07
Jan2013	02/20/2013	0.02	0.11
Oct2012	12/04/2012	0.35	0.23

                Earnings due out Dec 3rd,2013 consensus 0.40 

*Disclaimer: This is not a recommendation. All trading entails risk. Anyone employing any strategies and having limited knowledge of options trading should consult with a FINRA licensed professional.